A simple demonstration of climate change
I wanted to test if I can detect anthropogenic climate change from simple timeseries. To that end, I downloaded global surface temperature anomalies from NOAA [1], the good old Keeling curve from Scripps Institution of Oceanography [2] and an estimate of total solar irradiance from University of Colorado [3]. Then I was like 'hmm... how would a simple climate model look like?' I came up with the idea dT = aS - bT^4, dT being change of temperature, S being solar energy flux and T^4 coming from Stefan-Boltzmann's law, with a and b positive constants. (Bear with me, I know that this model is overly simplistic! The idea is what you can derive from this model, and that's quite awesome.) Then, how could CO2 go in? I assumed b = b0*exp(-c*CO2) with b0 and c positive, this is a reasonable first approximation: b decreases in CO2 but convexly. If there is no relationship between CO2 and global temperature, then c=0. Then I linearized the whole of dT around the mean of S, CO2 and ...